Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Bad news on Amendment 46 in new CBS4 poll

This is not good,

The initiative is leading 53 percent to 40 percent, with 7 percent undecided... The poll showed a high level of support among minority and women voters for the measure, which opponents take as an indication that there is a low level of awareness that it actually ends race- and gender-based affirmative action.

The lead itself isn't insurmountable. However, the fact that 7 days from the election there is still considerable confusion about what the Amendment actually does is a bad sign for the No on 46 campaign. There are just very few days left to reach those confused voters. In addition you are also facing voters who simply have campaign information overload. Many voters are simply over-whelmed and it's very difficult for new messages to really get through and have an impact.

Another issue is that with so many voters having already voted there are fewer and fewer persuadable voters and soft "Yes" votes available to flip. Early voting makes it critical that you have your issue/candidate/opponent defined by the first week of October, if not earlier. Without early voting the No on 46 campaign would be in a very tight spot. Add in early voting and I'm afraid that the opportunity to defeat this Amendment has passed.

No comments: