The key question is whether some of the voters who are still pledging their support to Mr. Maes might defect to Mr. Tancredo. That seems quite plausible — although the opposing point of view is that since Mr. Tancredo’s unfavorability ratings are fairly high, he could hit a ceiling of sorts, and that most Republicans who might be comfortable voting for him have already said they will.
Still, Mr. Hickenlooper’s position is not totally safe and the model gives Mr. Tancredo about a 12 percent chance of winning.
I've had more conversations with people "in the know" today and the consensus is that Hick has absolutely no ground game and subsequently very low contacts with voters. They seem focused on turning out people for various visibility events (waving signs at debates, the upcoming bus tour) but not really concerned with door knocking and phone banks. Pessimism abounds.