Monday, August 31, 2009

Avoiding mid-term losses

Steve Benen has a good post up regarding the predictions of big GOP gains in the mid-terms in 2010. Steve has some good points to make regarding the actual size of the possible pickups by the GOP and then he delivers what I think is the key factor that Democrats nationally and here in Colorado (I'm looking at you David Kenney and Bill Ritter) seem to always leave out of their plans,

...if Dem strategists are thinking about how to improve their chances, the reform fight offers a pretty big hint. Three words: motivate the base.

For all the talk in the Senate about scaling back reform, making the bill weaker, less effective, and less generous to middle class families, there's ample evidence that will only make matters far worse for Democratic candidates 14 months from now. Motivated conservatives will be furious either way, because even trying to bring about some reform has been deemed outrageous. The question is whether lawmakers will give progressive voters an incentive to head to the polls...

Voters who may be inclined to vote Democratic will need a reason. Policymakers need to give them one.

Democratic pols take their base for granted and spend very little time generally tending to the interest groups and giving liberals a reason to go out and fight. Watering down progressive legislation to appease Max Baucus and Chuck Grassley is demoralizing to your base. You can't expect to have the energy and turnout needed to combat the GOP in 2010 if you're not taking affirmative policy steps to motivate the base. The U.S. Senate and House went to the Dems in 2006. In 2008 we won the presidency. If by next summer there is very little in terms of high profile progressive policy victories to point to then what is the motivation for the base to go out and fight again? When you control all of the levers of power* your base expects results. The same goes for Bill Ritter and Colorado Democrats in 2010. They've had the legislature and now a full term with the governor's office as well - what has been accomplished? Why should the average party member give of their time and money if there are no results? And no, "It would be worse if the other guys were in office," is not a sufficient answer for you base.


*yes, I understand the instiutional hurdles in the U.S. Senate that have hampered reform. That comes across as excuse making to many in the public. Right or wrong, that is the perception and elected officials need to deal with reality.

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