Wednesday, January 7, 2009

A thought on Blagojevich

The more this all drags out the more I think that there's no way that Rod Blagojevich gets impeached by the Illinois legislature. I also think there's a very good chance (lets say 66%) that Blagojevich avoids criminal conviction altogether.

Just a hunch obviously but I'm not getting the feeling that the Illinois legislature really has much to work with. Fitzgerald can't let them try his case before he gets an indictment. Can the Illinois legislature gather enough evidence for a conviction without Fitz? I sort of doubt it. Legislature's just aren't equipped to handle complicated trials the way Congress is. They don't have large full time staffs packed full of top flight lawyers. Given the state of the economy one expects that public pressure will force the legislature to move on to the more immediate issues facing the state sooner rather than later.

As for Fitzgerald's investigation it's no secret that the Feds arrested Blago much sooner than they would have liked. They still have not sought an indictment. I'm assuming after the high profile arrest there eventually will be an indictment but expecting a prosecutor to win a conviction with only half of his case is a tall order, even for Fitz.


Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

Unlike criminal courts or even the U.S. Congress, the Illinois Senate need not establish guilty by a standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, or even that Blagojevich has committed a high crime or a misdemeanor.

The Illinois Senate need only establish "good cause" and their votes will be on the record.

Republicans have no reason to support him. Democrats have already committed themselves to taking Blagojevich down before he takes them with him.

If the House impeachment vote is nearly unanimous, and Blagojevich's defense strategy is no better than it was in the Illinois House, he is toast.

Steve Balboni said...

Excellent point Andrew, thanks