Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Swing county polling

How is Obama fairing in the bell-whether counties of swing states? Pretty well, 

Barack Obama has erased traditional Republican advantages in four key bellwether counties that President Bush won in 2000 and 2004, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey. Each county is critical to the outcome in the battleground state where it is located.

Washoe County, near Reno, Nev., Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 45 percent , with 6 percent undecided. Obama posts a wider 50 percent-44 percent lead with 5 percent undecided in Raleigh, North Carolina's Wake County, and another 6 point lead in Hillsborough County, Fla., where Tampa is located. There, he edges McCain 47 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

The one swing county in the poll that he is trailing in? Jefferson County Colorado where he trails 45 to 43 with 8 percent undecided. 

Its this polling within JeffCo that has me skeptical of the recent polls showing Obama up 9 or more points in the state. Bill Ritter blew Bob Beauprez out of the waterwith a nearly 18 point margin in JeffCo in 2006 on his way to a state wide 17 point win. Bush beat Kerry in Jefferson 52 to 47 and won the state by the same margin. Ken Salazar won the county 51 to 47 and won by an almost identical margin statewide. Those past results indicate to me that Obama cannot be ahead by such a large margin state wide if he is truly slightly behind in Jefferson County. 

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