It's becoming more and more clear that this falls vote on the governor's severance tax/scholarship proposal (titled Initiative 113) is going to be a tipping point for the Ritter administration and could potentially stunt the recent Democratic resurgence in Colorado.
The governor's popularity has plummeted in the last year, falling from somewhere in the 70's to right at 50% approval today. His negatives are still only in the high 20's but the honeymoon is certainly over.
Ritter decided early in his first year in office to take on the job of reforming the feckless industry rubber-stamp that was the Colorado Oil & Gas Commission. He changed the make up of the Commission to make it more responsive to the concerns of environmentalists and local communities and his new Commission has acted. On Wednesday they finalized new rules regarding safety on drill sites and drinking water protections. It's been a long and contentious battle with industry kicking and screaming the entire way.
This spring the governor choose to take action on a long simmering issue, our outdated severance tax system. He proposed closing an antiquated tax loophole in the hopes of keeping hundreds of millions of dollars in the state's budget and using the money for various needs and projects, first and foremost a large college scholarship fund. It's an admirable fight and the governor could be risking his political future in the state.
In political circles it is no secret that the oil and gas industry, feeling as though they are under assault from the administration, is willing (and able) to spend enormous amounts of money this election cycle. Would you believe $10-15 million just to defeat the severance tax measure? And then millions more on state Senate races.
Seeing the governor's declining poll numbers the oil and gas industry is hoping to deliver a knock-out blow to the governor and derail Democrats in the state legislature. If the severance tax measure goes down this fall Ritter will be severely weakened. It will be a blood in the water moment for the state GOP with the possibility that a weakened Ritter could actually be knocked off in his 2010 re-election bid. If the severance tax measure goes down look for the Republicans to aggressively push-back against Ritter in the 2009 legislative session while setting up their 2010 challenge. If Ritter is weakened the GOP will be able to recruit a strong challenger for the 2010 race. I wouldn't count out former Congressman Scott McInnis although I hear Josh Penry's name quite often and even John Elway.
The GOP and their industry friends are concentrating their electoral energies this fall at the state Senate races. A 20-15 Democratic majority becomes much less formidable if the Republicans can pick up just 1 seat, give them 2 and suddenly every vote in the Senate is in jeopardy of going against the Democrats. Two Senate seats plus a defeat of the severance tax measure and we'll be dealing with a resurgent state GOP.
It's a busy ballot this fall but keep an eye on the severance tax initiative, it could have both short term and long term ramifications for the balance of power in the state.
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