The latest Rasmussen Poll on the Colorado Senate race has Mark Udall's leading narrowing. More significantly it shows his support amongst independents collapsing - falling from a 21 point lead to a 4 point lead in just a month.
Such a significant decline makes me wonder about the sampling used and if the methodology has been consistent from month to month. I don't know what would have happened in the last month that would lead to such a signifcant decline. The FISA vote, as maddening as it was, wouldn't have this effect all on its own.
I haven't seen any private polls that are recent enough to compare to this latest Rasmussen polls. The polling I have seen was pretty well in line with Rasmussen's earlier polls that show a healthy Udall lead.
If the collapse amongst independents is true then Udall is in trouble. The target number for state wide Democratic victory is 60% of the independent vote. You can win state wide with less and with Democratic turnout expected to be very high this year a 55% Independent support may be enough to eke out a victory. Still, I'm a little concerned about this poll.
2 comments:
Our guess is that it's a statistical outlier. Rasmussen polls are conducted all on one night, which introduces all sorts of error possibilities. Might have been a sporting event or a popular TV show skewing the respondents.
As far as we can tell basically nothing has happened on either side of this campaign in the past month in terms of advertising or widely-disseminated news stories that could have caused such a sudden tilt.
Thanks for stopping in and letting us know. Discussing the poll with some other friends they all seem to feel the same way, statistical outlier.
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