He said, He said over status of scholarship ballot initiative

We learn from Politics West editor Stephen Keating that two different pollsters, hired by two different groups have come to two very different outcomes regarding the status of the governor-backed Scholarship Fund ballot initiative. The fund would be paid for by closing a tax loophole currently enjoyed by Colorado's oil and gas companies and would bring the state's tax code closer in line with our neighbors. Keating writes,

Washington, D.C., pollster Andrew Myers said he recently finished a poll for a private group that shows voters overwhelmingly supporting the measure.

But a poll from Texas pollster David Hill, commissioned by the group fighting against the initiative, has voters opposing the measure.

Both sides declined to release the complete details and results of their multi-question polls.

Well the last sentence isn't entirely true, Hill released his results to the Republican blog "Face The State" on Monday,

A telephone survey of 802 Colorado voters was conducted by Texas pollster David Hill of Hill Research Consultants May 27 through 29. It shows that just 38 percent of respondents support the proposal, while 44 percent are opposed and 19 percent remain undecided.

That's a serious deficit, if the numbers are accurate and that is a big if.

With no details as to the margin of error or how many Republicans, Independents and Democrats were sampled it's impossible to judge the accuracy of Hill's poll. While the Hill Research group has a nominally bi-partisan client list they are generally considered a GOP friendly firm having done work in the past for Tom DeLay, Elizabeth Dole and Katherine Harris, to name just a few. Hill also writes a partisan column for the D.C. newspaper "The Hill." Given that Hill refused to release his results to Politics West but happily allowed Face The State to publish them it's probably safe to assume that Face The State or a similar GOP-friendly entity commissioned the poll in question. Essentially David Hill's poll is worthless for anyone attempting to honestly ascertain the status of the proposed initiative.

The Andrew Myers poll is probably equally suspect. Myers does polling for groups on the left, including unions like AFL-CIO and AFSCME so one imagines that his poll was also commissioned by a partisan source.

The truth of the matter is we simply have no idea right now what the true status of the proposed initiative is.