That's really where we're at at this point in the stimulus discussion. The Democrats are arguing in favor of evolution, the Republicans for creationism.
We lost 19,300 jobs every single day last month. Those are real people, real families and real lives. It's beyond time to cut the crap and pass this thing, Republican whining be damned.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Obama comes out swinging, media still obsessed with High Broderism
As I went to bed last night I flipped on CNN and I caught Obama's speech to the House Dems retreat. It was a thing of beauty. He was forceful, he had a hint of sarcasm. He defended his plan and he ridiculed the Flat-Earth economics of the GOP.
What were David Gergen and John King discussing? Bi-partisanship. That's it, just the amorphous concept of bi-partisanship as thought it were somehow an end unto itself. They never once discussed the merits of the stimulus bill as a policy. They never discussed what macroeconomics teaches us to do in a situation like this. Nothing but but the absolute need for bi-partisanship. As if the process was the most important issue, not the substance. As if Republicans had been participating in negotiations in good faith. As if everyone's ideas were valid and should be given equal weight. It was absolutely maddening.
Interestingly enough while David Gergen and John King were worshiping at the altar of bi-partisanship the Congresional Budget Office had released a report on the substance of the stimulus bill. The bill as currently constructed will add millions of jobs in the next 3 years, it will cause GDP to grow. It will, in other words, work. Did anyone bother to mention this? Of course not, that wouldn't be bi-partisan. In John King's world everyone gets a participation trophy and that's the most important thing.
In the long term the CBO report indicates that the stimulus bill would raise government debt and that could stunt GDP growth in 2019. Interestingly enough the CBO even goes so far as to tell us which aspects of the current bill would do the most long term damage - the tax cuts that Republicans insist must be part of the package!
Got that? While elite opinion makers in the media concern themselves with making sure no one's feelings get hurt and that the bill is bi-partisan the CBO is telling us that the GOP provisions are damaging to the economy in the long term and that the spending provisions favored by Dems will rescue the economy in the short term. Facts, reality, efficacy of policy be damned. None of it matters if Mitch McConnell and Jim DeMint's feelings get hurt.
We're hemorrhaging jobs, the economy is in a nose dive. One party has solutions that will rescue the economy. The other party has ideology that will actively harm the economy. Yet both ideas are treated as though they are equally valid and the goal of the debate is not to FIX THE ECONOMY but to make sure the solution is bi-partisan.
It makes me want to scream. It's the epitome of High Broderism and at a time when our country can least afford this nonsense. We need solutions. Democrats have them. Screw the GOP, screw David Gergen's feelings and fix the economy Democrats.
What were David Gergen and John King discussing? Bi-partisanship. That's it, just the amorphous concept of bi-partisanship as thought it were somehow an end unto itself. They never once discussed the merits of the stimulus bill as a policy. They never discussed what macroeconomics teaches us to do in a situation like this. Nothing but but the absolute need for bi-partisanship. As if the process was the most important issue, not the substance. As if Republicans had been participating in negotiations in good faith. As if everyone's ideas were valid and should be given equal weight. It was absolutely maddening.
Interestingly enough while David Gergen and John King were worshiping at the altar of bi-partisanship the Congresional Budget Office had released a report on the substance of the stimulus bill. The bill as currently constructed will add millions of jobs in the next 3 years, it will cause GDP to grow. It will, in other words, work. Did anyone bother to mention this? Of course not, that wouldn't be bi-partisan. In John King's world everyone gets a participation trophy and that's the most important thing.
In the long term the CBO report indicates that the stimulus bill would raise government debt and that could stunt GDP growth in 2019. Interestingly enough the CBO even goes so far as to tell us which aspects of the current bill would do the most long term damage - the tax cuts that Republicans insist must be part of the package!
Got that? While elite opinion makers in the media concern themselves with making sure no one's feelings get hurt and that the bill is bi-partisan the CBO is telling us that the GOP provisions are damaging to the economy in the long term and that the spending provisions favored by Dems will rescue the economy in the short term. Facts, reality, efficacy of policy be damned. None of it matters if Mitch McConnell and Jim DeMint's feelings get hurt.
We're hemorrhaging jobs, the economy is in a nose dive. One party has solutions that will rescue the economy. The other party has ideology that will actively harm the economy. Yet both ideas are treated as though they are equally valid and the goal of the debate is not to FIX THE ECONOMY but to make sure the solution is bi-partisan.
It makes me want to scream. It's the epitome of High Broderism and at a time when our country can least afford this nonsense. We need solutions. Democrats have them. Screw the GOP, screw David Gergen's feelings and fix the economy Democrats.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Replacing Daschle
Anyone who has studied health care policy has surely become familiar with Tennessee's Medicaid crisis. The phrase "TennCare" is enough to send shivers up the spines of many of us. So suffice it to say that the man who brought us the TennCare debacle should not, I repeat NOT, replace Tom Daschle as the HHS nominee. That Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen has had his name even mentioned as a possible candidate is truly bizarre. Ezra Klein has the details.
Impetus for stimulus
Perhaps this will get things moving,
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to a 26-year high last week, according to government data on Thursday that pointed to a rapid deterioration in the economy...
In addition, the number of people staying on the benefit rolls hit a record high in the week ended Jan. 24, showing the weak labor market has yet to hit bottom. On Friday, the Labor Department will issue the employment report for January, and analysts are expecting a drop of 525,000 payroll jobs.
The department said initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose 35,000 to a seasonally adjusted 626,000 in the week ended Jan. 31, the highest since the week ending Oct. 30, 1982. The prior week's number was revised up to 591,000 from 588,000.
You wouldn't know it by the way Republicans in Washington are acting and the way that Harry Reid is behaving but our economy is cratering. We're losing about 15,000 jobs every single day.
Simple answers to simple questions
Seth asks,
It's a legitimate question and one that has frustrated many political observers on the left. I think the answer though is quite simple. I'll use an illustration to answer Seth's question:
I still don't understand why the minority party is allowed to stop legislation through the threat of a filibuster... An actual filibuster (against a popular piece of legislation) requires a great deal of work to pull off and risks making the Republicans look even more outside the mainstream than they currently look. Yet the Democrats are trying to accommodate Republicans without forcing the GOP to embarrass itself. I do not get this.
The Republicans have a pair of threes and they're playing like they have a straight flush. The Democrats are doing the exact opposite.
It's a legitimate question and one that has frustrated many political observers on the left. I think the answer though is quite simple. I'll use an illustration to answer Seth's question:
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Being poor is easy, so long as you're middle class
What kind of a person do you have to be to spend your time doing things like this? From the right-wing Face The State,
Seriously, what kind of person spends their time proving that $5 a day for food is more than enough for poor people? We're talking about people who net $10,000 a year in income and this Armstrong guy is making it his life's mission to prove that they can get by on less than the $5 a day the government provides them for food.
To see just how noxious this whole exercise is we need to inspect Ari's methods. Keep in mind that Ari is your run of the mill glibertarian, meaning he has no concept of how life actually works for people outside of his socio-economic class. Ari explains,
The first store (Sprouts) is located at west 120th Ave in Broomfield, next he travels to a Target on Reed St, also in Broomfield. That's a 45 minute trip that requires a transfer and a 17 minute walk from the bus stop to the Target. Ari though was able to drive from one store to the next, shop and check out (according to the receipts he's posted) within 25 minutes. Being poor is easy in a car!
Ari then travels to a King Soopers located at 9983 Wadsworth. Guess what? There's no bus that services that route. That means Ari would have to walk the 1 mile or so with his bags from the previous two stores. Hope Ari isn't elderly or disabled!
To take the trip that Ari proposes would take a person well over an hour and require that person to not only have the time to partake in such a trip but also to be in good enough health to make the long walks from stores to bus stop and from store to store.
Did you notice too how Ari spotted these great deals before he went shopping? I'll post it again
Online. He looked up the sale prices online, just like any other poor person would do - right?
Ari Armstrong has absolutely no idea what a person on food stamps goes through. He's purports to live on a food stamp budget to somehow prove that its suitable for our nations poor but he does so while still enjoying all of the luxuries of a middle-class lifestyle. He used a computer that probably cost 1/10th of the yearly income of food stamp recipient. He used the internet which would come with a monthly fee that would probably equal a days meal for simple dial up. That internet would of course require a working phone line too. After doing his due diligence online Ari proceeds to drive in his car from store to store. Cars cost money to buy, they cost money to insure and they use gas which also costs money. Being poor is easy so long as you're middle-class. For actual poor people though reality is much different than what our smug friend here experienced.
Is Ari Armstrong intentionally mendacious or simply a total fool? After reading this I'd say that's a distinction without a difference.
Ari Armstrong is at it again... This time he's back on his "food stamp diet" and out to prove that daily allotments under the nation's existing food stamp program are more than sufficient for our nation's poor.
Seriously, what kind of person spends their time proving that $5 a day for food is more than enough for poor people? We're talking about people who net $10,000 a year in income and this Armstrong guy is making it his life's mission to prove that they can get by on less than the $5 a day the government provides them for food.
To see just how noxious this whole exercise is we need to inspect Ari's methods. Keep in mind that Ari is your run of the mill glibertarian, meaning he has no concept of how life actually works for people outside of his socio-economic class. Ari explains,
Today I shopped at three grocery stores, Sprouts, Target, and King Soopers. I chose Sprouts by reading store ads online; that store is having particularly good vegetable sales this week.Did Ari take public transportation to these 3 stores? Because if you're making $10,000 a year odds are you're riding the bus or walking to any destination you might have. Anyone care to venture a guess as to how long it would take a person to go from the three stores that Ari visited if he were to travel by bus? I retraced Ari's trip using Google maps and their public transportation information. Leaving aside how one relying on food stamps would reach the bus stop in the first place and the amount of time that might take as well as the trip home lets look at the proposed trip.
The first store (Sprouts) is located at west 120th Ave in Broomfield, next he travels to a Target on Reed St, also in Broomfield. That's a 45 minute trip that requires a transfer and a 17 minute walk from the bus stop to the Target. Ari though was able to drive from one store to the next, shop and check out (according to the receipts he's posted) within 25 minutes. Being poor is easy in a car!
Ari then travels to a King Soopers located at 9983 Wadsworth. Guess what? There's no bus that services that route. That means Ari would have to walk the 1 mile or so with his bags from the previous two stores. Hope Ari isn't elderly or disabled!
To take the trip that Ari proposes would take a person well over an hour and require that person to not only have the time to partake in such a trip but also to be in good enough health to make the long walks from stores to bus stop and from store to store.
Did you notice too how Ari spotted these great deals before he went shopping? I'll post it again
I chose Sprouts by reading store ads online
Online. He looked up the sale prices online, just like any other poor person would do - right?
Ari Armstrong has absolutely no idea what a person on food stamps goes through. He's purports to live on a food stamp budget to somehow prove that its suitable for our nations poor but he does so while still enjoying all of the luxuries of a middle-class lifestyle. He used a computer that probably cost 1/10th of the yearly income of food stamp recipient. He used the internet which would come with a monthly fee that would probably equal a days meal for simple dial up. That internet would of course require a working phone line too. After doing his due diligence online Ari proceeds to drive in his car from store to store. Cars cost money to buy, they cost money to insure and they use gas which also costs money. Being poor is easy so long as you're middle-class. For actual poor people though reality is much different than what our smug friend here experienced.
Is Ari Armstrong intentionally mendacious or simply a total fool? After reading this I'd say that's a distinction without a difference.
What's in the stimulus for Colorado?
The White House has released a state by state breakdown of what each state will get from the stimulus package if it passes. Here's what they outline for Colorado (pdf),
There are a few more details in the .pdf but these are the highlights
- Creating or saving 63,000 jobs over the next two years, 90% in the private sector
- $1,000 tax cut for 1,870,000 workers
- 36,000 new families eligible for the American Opportunity Tax Credit for college
- Additional unemployment benefits of $100/month for 173,000 workers
- Extension of unemployment benefits for 36,000 workers
- Modernization of 99 schools
There are a few more details in the .pdf but these are the highlights
State Senate Dems sinking Ritter's transportation bill
Pols points us to this developing story in the Rocky,
Sen. Mary Hodge, D-Brighton, has rankled her own party again, this time with an amendment that would prohibit tolling of existing highway lanes. It again passed on an 18-17 vote.The bill had provisions that would allow for tolling existing lanes under a process that involves local and state governments and, if the road in question is an interstate, a federal waiver...
Democratic Sens. Morgan Carroll of Aurora, Lois Tochtrop of Thornton and Jim Isgar of Hesperus joined Hodge and Republicans in backing the amendment.
In layman's terms, we're seeing a coalition of Senate Dems (in conjunction with Senate R's) attacking the funding mechanism for the governors transportation bill. The politics of this are pretty striking. It's Brandon Shaffer's job as the Senate Majority leader to hold his caucus together - he's clearly failed. Senator Tochtrop is actually the Assistant Majority Leader in the Senate, so apparently Dem leadership in the Senate can't even agree among themselves.
It's also a pretty stunning rebuke of the Democratic governor by his own party. This legislation was a critical part of the governor's agenda, to not be able to get this passed and to see it go down in such a public manner does not speak well of the governor's influence. This sort of fight should have been settled behind closed doors before it ever came to the floor.
What the hell is going on down there?
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Reich on Daschle
The former Secretary of Labor (and Obama economic transition team member) weighs in on the demise of Tom Daschle,
As usual with Mr. Reich, you really must read the whole thing.
Tom Daschle's surprise withdrawal today shocked most Washington insiders -- after all, Daschle had been a key figure in the Senate, was Obama's pick for a major role in the new administration, would very likely have done a superb job getting a new health-insurance system enacted, and, probably could have mustered enough votes to be confirmed. So what happened? My guess is that official Washington underestimated the public's pique at what appeared to be the old ways of Washington. Hill staffers tell me that many offices have been inundated with telephone calls, emails, letters and faxes expressing concern (to put it mildly) about Daschle -- not only his failure to pay back taxes but his relationships with major players in the health care industry and rich consulting contracts with the private sector since leaving the Senate, and even the fact that he was given a car and driver by one of them.
What's going on here? Maybe official Washington, much like most of Wall Street, is still not quite getting it.
As usual with Mr. Reich, you really must read the whole thing.
Prevailing wages on state jobs
Count me as a big supporter of the new bill by House Democrat John Soper,
House Bill 1208, by Rep. John Soper, D-Thornton, would require contractors to pay "prevailing wages," set by the U.S. Department of Labor.
Prevailing wages are routinely paid by union shops but not by independent contractors.
Opponents say the bill would greatly increase the cost of projects.
But union backers argue that the state needs to step in and demand that employees get paid decent salaries and have health care covered by their employers.
With Colorado expecting hundreds of millions of dollars for public-works projects as part of a federal stimulus package, the proposal is likely to kick up a huge debate.
The act of construction alone is not in and of itself stimulus. The economic stimulus occurs when the companies that engage in the construction hire workers and pay them wages. The workers in turn will spend those wages on goods and services and thus the stimulus money circulates through the economy.
Job creation is often touted as the end goal of the economic stimulus but really the end goal is the circulation of the stimulus dollars throughout our economy. Putting people to work is great but they need to be paid well enough that they're not just saving or paying off bills but actively spending. During the Depression the workers employed by the Civilian Conservation Corps lived in tent cities on their job sites, many in remote places. In order to ensure that their earnings circulated back into the general economy workers were required to send $25 of their $30 monthly earnings home. That amounts to 83% of their total wages that they were required to remit in order to stimulate the economy.
Prevailing wages are calculated for each country. In Denver prevailing wages for a brick layer are $22.55/hr, that works out to $46,000 a year. That's right between the median income for Denver County and the median income for the state of Colorado. In other words, that's a fair and equitable wage.
I understand that this will be a bloody partisan battle but Representative Soper is working from a sound base both economically and historically. Republicans like Cory Gardner are free to take their shots but the fact of the matter is the end game here is consumer spending and without increased consumer spending we're all sunk.
Ed reform in DC
Phil asked my opinion on the situation in the DC schools. Specifically this,
Long story short, the Washington Teachers Union has countered and the two sides are very far apart.
My take, urban schools are bad because urban areas are poorer. Poor kids don't do well in school for a whole lot of reasons - diet, health, parental involvement, the culture of their neighborhoods and their families. Its not that teachers don't matter but I think these fights are about Superintendents demonstrating that they are in charge and flexing their muscles and of course the union doing just the opposite. I don't think Michelle Rhee is going to save the DC school system, same for Randy Weingarten.
The merits of the proposal? Meh, its fine if that's what teachers want to do but I'm skeptical of any long term reform coming out of a program that is grant/philanthropic based. How is this program sustainable over the long term?
My impression is that a lot of the so called reformers don't actually have a clue as to what to do. It's damn near impossible to replicate small successes on a large scale or in different cities. Why? because the socio-economic factors outweigh everything else.
I don't know what the answer is but it's more complex than just giving some teachers a better pay check. I don't think that's a bad thing but we spend way too much time fighting over it. There are huge cultural and economic issues that were decades in the making that have brought down the performance of our urban schools.
In late September, D.C. schools chancellor Michelle Rhee presented the Washington Teachers' Union with a contract that, if put into practice, would be the most radical overhaul of teachers' work rules attempted since the rise of the teachers' union movement in the 1960s. The contract created two employment ladders for teachers. The "green" track would require teachers to give up tenure in exchange for the possibility of large merit-pay bonuses financed by philanthropies. Under the "green" plan, teacher salaries could reach $130,000. Alternatively, teachers could choose to retain their tenure privileges and stick to a traditional, seniority-based salary ladder with a lower ceiling. That would have been the "red" track. The symbolism was clear. Tenure was "stop;" the slow, reactionary, path. Merit pay was the "go" option.
Ever since American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten appeared at the National Press Club in November to announce that she was ready to negotiate with union-skeptic education reformers, and that "no issue should be off the table, provided it is good for children and fair to teachers," the eyes of edu-wonks nationwide have been trained on D.C., curious to see whether the union will make major concessions...
Long story short, the Washington Teachers Union has countered and the two sides are very far apart.
My take, urban schools are bad because urban areas are poorer. Poor kids don't do well in school for a whole lot of reasons - diet, health, parental involvement, the culture of their neighborhoods and their families. Its not that teachers don't matter but I think these fights are about Superintendents demonstrating that they are in charge and flexing their muscles and of course the union doing just the opposite. I don't think Michelle Rhee is going to save the DC school system, same for Randy Weingarten.
The merits of the proposal? Meh, its fine if that's what teachers want to do but I'm skeptical of any long term reform coming out of a program that is grant/philanthropic based. How is this program sustainable over the long term?
My impression is that a lot of the so called reformers don't actually have a clue as to what to do. It's damn near impossible to replicate small successes on a large scale or in different cities. Why? because the socio-economic factors outweigh everything else.
I don't know what the answer is but it's more complex than just giving some teachers a better pay check. I don't think that's a bad thing but we spend way too much time fighting over it. There are huge cultural and economic issues that were decades in the making that have brought down the performance of our urban schools.
Daschle withdraws
I'm surprised that Daschle withdrew, given his importance to health care reform and his very close relationship to the president I figured he'd survive. I'm glad he withdrew, it was the right thing to do.
CBO: Stimulus bill to deliver within 18 months
TPM points us to the new release from the CBO on the bill in the Senate which states that 78% of the funds will have an economic impact within 18 months. Last week the GOP was having conniptions because the previous report on the House bill promised just 64% delivery in 18 months, far short of Obama's own metric of 75%. TPM asks the obvious question,
The budget office found that $694 billion of the bill's total $884 billion cost would be spent during the first 18 months after enactment, or a spend-out rate of 78%.By the Republicans' own metric, that makes the bill a smashing success! Does that mean you'll promise not to filibuster it, guys?
Monday, February 2, 2009
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Daschle as a symptom
Karen Tumulty at Time points us to one of her commenters making the broader point about Tom Daschle,
Tumulty details some of the other details of the Daschle case but I think the above comment really captures the issue. Our political leadership on the Federal level, our media and our corportae leaders live in a different world entirely than most Americans. That inevitably leads to their ignorance about the issues, needs and lives of the rest of us. That can't help but affect the policies they pursue or the issues they report on and the perspectives they take while reporting.
Losing Daschle would be significant. He's been brought on to shepherd health care reform through the Congress, that's no small task and one that I think is perhaps the most important policy issue facing the administration and the American people. It's certainly the most important issue for me - its both an economic issue and a moral issue. Daschle though must go.
If you want to be outraged, it should be at the entire class oligarchy we have constructed, where most of our leaders haven't a clue how the other 99.9% of us think and live, and they're working full time every day trying to suck down a fire hose of money and perks. I believe that basic disconnect explains much of the sh*tstorm we're experiencing, whether from government, industry or the corporate media. These folks live in a complete bubble and you would be shocked to discover how clueless they are on a whole host of "real life" matters. And, it's easy to understand why: the rules for the rest of us literally don't apply to them.
Tumulty details some of the other details of the Daschle case but I think the above comment really captures the issue. Our political leadership on the Federal level, our media and our corportae leaders live in a different world entirely than most Americans. That inevitably leads to their ignorance about the issues, needs and lives of the rest of us. That can't help but affect the policies they pursue or the issues they report on and the perspectives they take while reporting.
Losing Daschle would be significant. He's been brought on to shepherd health care reform through the Congress, that's no small task and one that I think is perhaps the most important policy issue facing the administration and the American people. It's certainly the most important issue for me - its both an economic issue and a moral issue. Daschle though must go.
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